On July 15, KeyBanc reported that Intel's flagship 18A process yield has reached 85% , with the foundry securing design wins from Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Marvell, Microsoft, Micron, and OpenAI. Its EMIB-T advanced packaging yield hit 98% , winning Google TPU and Amazon Trainium 3 chip packaging projects. KeyBanc forecasts Intel's 2030 total revenue at $132 billion**, raising its price target to **$155.

Intel 18A entered mass production late last year, debuting in the Panther Lake Core Ultra 3. Yields have improved at a steady 7% per month over six months – exceeding internal expectations – and volume shipments are now underway. At 85%, 18A trails TSMC's N2 (~90%) but significantly outpaces Samsung's SF2 (~50-60%).

The enhanced 18A-P is now in risk production at Oregon's D1X, offering 9% better performance at same power or 18% lower power at same performance, with mass transfer to Fab 62 planned later. The next-gen 14A is on track for H2 2028, showing better defect metrics than 18A at the same stage.

Intel has revised its own product strategy – 80-90% of Nova Lake desktop CPU compute chiplets will now be made in-house, reversing an earlier plan to outsource 60-70% to TSMC's 2nm, driven by TSMC's less favorable pricing and support for Intel compared to external clients.

Packaging orders are accelerating – EMIB-T, a CoWoS-equivalent 2.5D solution with TSV interconnects, has reached 98% yield and is now packaging Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium 3 accelerators.

On the CPU front, Intel raised prices on Arrow Lake and Granite Rapids in July, with another 6-15% hike on client CPUs set for Q3, driven by supply tightness from AI server capacity allocation.

To match rising orders, Intel is investing €5 billion to expand its Ireland fab for Intel 3 capacity, with server chip shipments forecast up 25-30% this year and over 50% next year. Equipment procurement has been increased 30-40%.

KeyBanc projects foundry revenue at $10.6 billion** and **EMIB-T packaging at $22 billion by 2030, supporting the $155 target.

From ICgoodFind: 85% yield + 98% packaging = Intel is back in the foundry game. With Apple, AMD, and Nvidia in the door, the capacity is real – and TSMC just gained a serious second source.